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eulav's avatar

個答案都係一樣

假如我持有

我會行一次上面既流程

我會思考下係咪 one off event,假如係咁都可以接受繼續觀察

假如係 fundamental change structural change

咁就要檢討自己當初既 assumption 有無錯

而即使你認為唔係 structural change

都要睇偏離幾耐假如係錯一季,幾季,一年咁都尚可

但假如去到兩年,三年咁

咁其實就要認真思考當初個估值係咪做錯

因為個 market 短期當然有機會無效,低效

但去到兩年三年既 inefficiency,唔係無機會

但機會相當細,我會認為自己估值錯分析錯既機會相信更大

eulav's avatar

其實係加定減,唔應該問我

應該係問你自己當初你 original investment thesis 係咩

assumed TAM growth rate 幾多

assumed market share to global digital ad spend 係幾多

Operating leverage/ deleverage 係幾大

margin 係幾多 %

SBC,diluted shares growth 係點

等等

去對照番依家到底條數同你本身預想有無偏差

假如係無偏差,thesis 又無改變

咁咪可以繼續等,睇下係咪 value recovery 會出現

假如係有偏差,而且唔係一季有偏差

而係已經有幾季係咁

咁其實就要檢討係咪個 assumption 係已經錯左

但我都係果句,我既話第一件事一定係做 qualitative

假如間企業既 business model,moat 等等唔合心意

咁咪 move on 再搵下一間

大把機會啦個市場

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